2023 is here – What will happen in the year ahead?

2023 is here – What will happen in the year ahead?

Thanks for checking out my monthly real estate update for South Delta and the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

Here is a link to the complete set of charts and graphs – it may be useful to refer to them as you read through this piece!

Here is a link to the Real Estate Board of Vancouver (REBGV) Monthly Market Report.

“The headline story in our market in 2022 was all about inflation and the Bank of Canada’s efforts to bring inflation back to target by rapidly raising the policy rate. This is a story we expect to continue to make headlines into 2023, as inflationary pressures remain persistent across Canada,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics said.

The effect of circumstance on our real estate market can be considered on many fronts, some of which could include:

  • longer term trends
    • supply of housing – municipal process
    • demand for housing
      • immigration
      • interprovincial migration
      • demographics
  • Shorter term trends
    • inflation
    • interest rate effects
  • Seasonality
  • Cyclicality
    • is there a business cycle?
    • what does it look like?

Long term price trend

Here is a graph for HPI for REBGV detached since 2008:

There is an underlying trend to rising prices in our Greater Vancouver market – can we attribute a value to that for a meaningful forecast?

There are some shorter term trends that are evident:

  • 2008 stock market ‘adjustment’ and ‘bounce back’
  • in the ‘quieter, balanced market’ years from 2010 – 2015 some seasonality is observable
  • 2015 – 2016 the ‘foreign investment’ effect
  • late 2016
    • cooling of the overheated market
    • July – implementation of BC’s foreign buyer tax
  • 2018 – effects of the Canada wide mortgage stress test
  • 2020 – early 2022
    • Covid and post Covid run up of prices
    • driven by expectations and fear of missing out?
  • 2022 – last 3 quarters
    • natural easing of market
    • interest rate increases

What are others saying?:

What will this mean for the time ahead of us?

It is difficult to forecast exactly what will happen in the future but reviewing and analyzing the past helps us to establish rational expectations. I will be watching closely and sharing my observations to help you make more informed decisions in real estate.

I am here to arm you with the best information and give my professional advice so you can make the best decisions to help yourself move forward!

Best wishes in the year ahead!

email:  dbauck@deanbauck.com