May Uptick in the Market – Trend or Seasonality?

May Uptick in the Market – Trend or Seasonality?

Thanks for taking the time to look at my monthly real estate update for South Delta and the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

Here is a link to the complete set of charts and graphs – it may be useful to refer to them as you read through this piece!

Here is a link to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver media release.

Sales in the month of May show a noticeable increase from the earlier months of the year but were still 22.9% below the 10 year average.

To put this into perspective for detached sales, last month was the highest level of sales since May 2018 and the third highest since the summer of 2017.

S&L REBGV DetS&L REBGV THS&L REBGV Apt

So the question is why did this happen?

  • Is it just a manifestation of expected seasonal volume – as May is often the busiest month of the year for sales?
  • Is it a case of the building of pent up demand (see my previous blog) finally finding a release point?
  • Is this an emerging trend? Recent government policies intending to subdue demand were expected to be short term in nature. Has the real estate market now capitalized and internalized these policies?

All are reasonable considerations and are likely working together to produce the current change in market activity.

Price Levels

While prices remain soft their decreases appear to have flattened – see especially the graphs for REBGV townhouses and apartments which even are showing a little look up again. As we prepare to enter the second half of the year we expect that seasonal softness but will it be to the level experienced in 2018 following the implementation of the mortgage stress test? From the peaks of 2018 to the early months of 2019 detached and attached HPI (House Price Index) each dropped around 9% while apartments were down around 6.4% for the same period.

What’s selling and what’s not…

Lower price ranges are the most active for detached properties:

  • Ladner – up to $1.2m with the $800 – 999k range being the most active
  • Tsawwassen – up to $1.4m  with the $1 – 1.1m being the most active
  • Local area apartment sales took a big jump to 20 units in May from just 5 in April and 6 in March.

There continues to be a dearth of sales in the $1.4m range although Tsawwassen having 4 in this range (2 waterfronts, 1 luxury bluff & 1 large new house) in the past 2 months are seen as promising!

Price Dist Ladner Price Dist Tsawwassen

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