Thanks for taking the time to look at my monthly real estate update for South Delta and the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).
Here is a link to the complete set of charts and graphs – it may be useful to refer to them as you read through this piece!
Here is a link to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver media release.
Our real estate market remains historically slow with sales at 46.3% below the 10 year average and the lowest for March since 1986!
Policy directives have quelled demand, likely for the short term – but the $64 question remains ‘what is the duration of the lull?’
Here is a quote from the new President of the REBGV:
“Housing demand today isn’t aligning with our growing economy and low unemployment rates. The market trends we’re seeing are largely policy induced,” Ashley Smith, REBGV president said. “For three years, governments at all levels have imposed new taxes and borrowing requirements on to the housing market.”
“What policymakers are failing to recognize is that demand-side measures don’t eliminate demand, they sideline potential home buyers in the short term. That demand is ultimately satisfied down the line because shelter needs don’t go away. Using public policy to delay local demand in the housing market just feeds disruptive cycles that have been so well-documented in our region.”
Detached HPI for the REBGV is down 10.5% from the relative peak of one year ago while townhouses are down 10% and apartments 6.9%
Prices are likely to hold fairly steady during the first half of the year which typically experiences higher seasonal sales than does the second half. What happens beyond that remains to be seen as there are many different underlying forces that may exert themselves:
- Typically softer seasonal demand in the second half of the year
- Build up of latent demand from transitioners within the domestic market
- Supply side collective preferences of sellers to either exit a falling market or to ride it out
- Demographic influences such as boomers downsizing versus millenials upgrading
- Further changes in government policy
It promises to be an interesting ride – one that I will be watching carefully and passing on to my clients!
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